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Forecasting

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Modelling

Dynamic Excel based forecast models

  • Customized models as per Business Need

  • User-friendly interface

  • Multiple Scenario Capabilities within same model

  • Dedicated sections for applying events/assumptions (e.g., New launch, Price Events etc.)

  • Integrated dashboard to view forecast outputs

Flow Chart

Epi based and Bottom-Up Forecast

Top-Down Approach

Epidemiology Forecast approach. Forecast assumptions like Patient share (new/total), Persistency curve leveraged to estimate patients on individual drug.

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Bottom-Up Approach

  • Volume or total Rx leveraged to estimate market size

  • Baseline trending to project existing market in the forecast period

  • Application of  market events like new product share, etc. to estimate evented market forecast

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Hybrid Approach

Reconciliation of Patient numbers from Top-down and Bottom-up approaches to provide robust market size estimates.

Market Analysis

Data Analysis

Market Size estimations

  • Epidemiology research for specific disease

  • Prevalence rate, diagnosis rate and treatment rate

  • Patientwill funnel wherein required cuts be applied to arrive at target patient pool

  • Deriving market definition based on ATC2/ATC3/ATC4, Diagnosis codes, distinct list of products to extract market data for specific indication from audit databases like: Symphony, Iqvia etc.​

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New Launch Assumptions

Leveraging Secondary Research and/or PMR (Qualitative/Quantitative) to estimate:

  • Peak market share

  • Uptakeproduct curve

  • Time to peak

  • Market Access​

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Market/Pricing Events

  • Pipeline analysis to identify competitor launches

  • Loss of Exclusivity (generic entrants)

  • Sales Force Reach

  • Regulatory events

  • Price cuts, reimbursements events​

Financial Analyst

Virtual Assistant

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Data Analytics

Image by Myriam Jessier

Dashboard/ Reporting

  • Excel based dashboards to generate user-friendly visualizations/output

  • VBA-based dashboards to create automated PowerPoint decks

  • Customizable matrix like growth rates/CAGR/aggregations as per business requirement

Financial Report

Analogue Analysis

  • Leveraging pharma audit databases like: symphony, Iqvia MIDAS, Therapy area expertise to identify suitable analogues through robust analogue selection funnel

  • Performing analysis on selected analogues to generate insights/assumptions as per business requirements e.g., peak share, time to peak, LOE erosion, uptake curve shape, price evolution etc.

Competitive Intelligence

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